{"id":1055595,"date":"2025-08-12T16:36:53","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T20:36:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/democrats.org\/?p=1055595"},"modified":"2025-08-12T16:36:54","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T20:36:54","slug":"icymi-trump-is-underwater-on-trade-in-40-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/democrats.org\/news\/icymi-trump-is-underwater-on-trade-in-40-states\/","title":{"rendered":"ICYMI: Trump is Underwater on Trade in 40 States"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"449\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/democrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Black-Logo-White-Fill-For-Email.png?w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1050776\" srcset=\"https:\/\/democrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Black-Logo-White-Fill-For-Email.png 1101w, https:\/\/democrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Black-Logo-White-Fill-For-Email.png?resize=300,132 300w, https:\/\/democrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Black-Logo-White-Fill-For-Email.png?resize=768,337 768w, https:\/\/democrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Black-Logo-White-Fill-For-Email.png?resize=1024,449 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Point: <\/strong><em>\u201cJust based on the mathematics of his decline in deep red states, many Republican-leaning voters (most of them rural) appear to be balking at the president&#8217;s trade policies. In our data, Trump is net unpopular on trade in 40 of 50 states. \u2026 The president&#8217;s policies are broadly unpopular on the ground, including in states critical to his 2024 coalition and in places where Senate races could flip control of the chamber in 2026.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gelliottmorris.com\/p\/trump-is-underwater-on-trade-in-40\"><strong>Strength in Numbers<\/strong><\/a><strong>: Trump is underwater on trade in 40 states<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By G. Elliott Morris<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>My predictive model trained on 4,000 interviews with U.S. adults shows that <strong>Trump\u2019s approval on trade is just 41% in the average state, whereas 59% disapprove of his job performance in the area. Trump is below 45% in every major battleground state \u2014 including Iowa, Texas, and Florida, <\/strong>where Republican senators are running for re-election next year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>In competitive states, Trump is weakest in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where just 39% of voters approve of how he\u2019s handling trade, <\/strong>followed closely by Nevada at 40% and Michigan at 41%. These are states where the margin of victory in the 2024 presidential elections was razor-thin, so a twenty-point deficit for the president represents meaningful degradation in support for his agenda.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>And even in swing states where Trump performed better in 2025, he remains firmly underwater on tariffs. <strong>On average, in all competitive states, Trump&#8217;s approval on tariffs is 10 points below his vote share in the 2024 presidential election.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Aside from state-level patterns, there&#8217;s also a noticeable regional gradient. The tariffs are least popular in the Northeast (average approval = 36%) and the West (40%), where high-cost coastal metros and consumption patterns likely make price increases more salient. \u2026<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>There&#8217;s a plausible effect of cross-border trade, too; <strong>Trump is underwater on tariffs in all border states except North Dakota (where he&#8217;s only at 51% approval). <\/strong>Trump\u2019s tariffs on trade with Mexico and Canada have tended to be less popular than his tariffs on far-off countries.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Finally, while tariffs are expected to be losers in deep-blue states, <strong>Trump is only barely holding on in many deep-red ones too.<\/strong> The president rarely breaks the mid-50s in most of his key strongholds. He&#8217;s at 56% in West Virginia, for example, a state he won with 70% of the vote in 2024.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This suggests tariffs aren\u2019t simply a partisan loyalty test. Just based on the mathematics of his decline in deep red states, <strong>many Republican-leaning voters (most of them rural) appear to be balking at the president&#8217;s trade policies.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>In our data, Trump is net unpopular on trade in 40 of 50 states.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u2026 <strong>The president&#8217;s policies are broadly unpopular on the ground, including in states critical to his 2024 coalition and in places where Senate races could flip control of the chamber in 2026.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Point: \u201cJust based on the mathematics of his decline in deep red states, many Republican-leaning voters (most of them rural) appear to be balking at the president&#8217;s trade policies. In our data, Trump is net unpopular on trade in 40 of 50 states. \u2026 The president&#8217;s policies are broadly unpopular on the ground, including [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":293,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1055595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-press-release"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>ICYMI: Trump is Underwater on Trade in 40 States - Democrats<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/democrats.org\/news\/icymi-trump-is-underwater-on-trade-in-40-states\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Democrats\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-12T20:36:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-08-12T20:36:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/democrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Black-Logo-White-Fill-For-Email.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1101\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"483\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Shelby Reese\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Shelby Reese\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/democrats.org\/news\/icymi-trump-is-underwater-on-trade-in-40-states\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/democrats.org\/news\/icymi-trump-is-underwater-on-trade-in-40-states\/\",\"name\":\"ICYMI: Trump is Underwater on Trade in 40 States - 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